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  • 1 # 阿明00

    安倍晉三留下的政治遺產比他無聲的退場更讓人印象深刻。他不僅重塑了日本的經濟、外交關係,還為未來的改革鋪平了道路。

    今年8月底,日本首相連續執政的紀錄剛剛被打破。然而,僅僅4天后,破記錄者卻說,自己也已成為歷史。安倍晉三是日本連任時間最長(同時也是在任時間最長)的首相,他於今年8月28日宣佈辭職。

    安倍自稱辭職的原因是消化道舊疾惡化。而此時距離他依據自民黨章程卸任首相一職還有一年的時間。但許多人將他的離去看作是他承認了自己的失敗。他一直在努力振興持續低迷幾十年的日本經濟,但由於新冠肺炎疫情的爆發,日本經濟再次陷入低迷。

    His campaign to revise Japan’s pacifist constitution to give the armed forces a proper legal underpinning has gone nowhere. His planned swansong, the Tokyo Olympics that were supposed to have taken place this summer, may never happen. His approval rating is dire.

    他曾試圖修改《和平憲法》,從而為軍隊提供更多的法律支援,但最終毫無進展。他計劃中的最後一場演出(即原定於今年夏天舉行的東京奧運會)可能永遠無法上演了。種種因素導致他的支援率很低。

    It is a gloomy moment. What with the depredations of the coronavirus, the growing pugnacity of China and Japan’s shrinking and ageing population, Mr Abe’s successor, who will be chosen on September 14th by the LDP’s MPs, will have his work cut out.

    安倍的卸任對日本來說無疑是個至暗時刻。在新冠病毒肆虐、中國變得日益強盛、日本人口不斷縮減以及人口老齡化不斷加劇之際,安倍的繼任者(將於9月14日在自民黨議員中選出)將任重而道遠。

    But all these problems have been made more manageable by Mr Abe’s eight years in office. The outgoing prime minister has done a far better job than is commonly acknowledged. Before covid-19 struck, “Abenomics” was succeeding, albeit slowly, in resuscitating the economy.

    但在安倍的八年任期內,所有這些問題都變得更容易解決了。這位即將離任的首相所做的工作遠比人們認為的要好。在新冠肺炎疫情爆發前,“安倍經濟學”正推動著日本經濟的復甦,儘管速度緩慢。

    Japan, something of a wallflower in global affairs since the second world war, was playing an unusually prominent and constructive role in Asia and around the world. And Mr Abe was pushing through difficult reforms that shorter-lived and less adept prime ministers had shirked for decades. He leaves a much more impressive legacy than his muted exit suggests.

    自二戰以來,日本雖然在亞洲和世界各地發揮著異常突出的建設性作用,但在全球事務中卻彷彿局外人一般。安倍正在艱難地推進一系列改革,而這正是過去幾十年來那些“短命的”、能力不足的首相們一直迴避的問題。他所留下的政治遺產遠比他無聲的退場更讓人印象深刻。

    To get the economy moving, Mr Abe adopted policies previously considered politically or culturally impossible. As part of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP), a big regional trade deal, he agreed to slash tariffs and increase import quotas for agricultural goods, even though coddled farmers are some of the LDP’s most loyal supporters.

    為了推動經濟發展,安倍採取了一系列此前在政治或文化上都被認為不可能實現的政策。儘管飽受嬌慣的農民是自民黨最忠實的支持者,但作為跨太平洋夥伴關係協定(TPP)的一員,他同意削減關稅並增加農產品進口配額。

    Japanese women entered the workforce in droves, helped by free nursery school and other subsidies for child care. They are now more likely to work than their American counterparts. And there are more than twice as many foreign workers in Japan as there were when Mr Abe took office, despite a supposed national phobia about immigration.

    在免費幼兒園和其他育兒補貼政策的幫助下,日本女性成群結隊地加入了勞動力大軍。如今,日本女性相比美國女性有著更高的就業率。儘管日本人對於移民心懷恐懼,但如今日本外籍工人數量已達安倍上任時的兩倍多。

    Corporate governance has also improved dramatically. Almost all big listed firms have at least one independent director, compared with less than 40% in 2012. That in turn has broadened Japan’s appeal to foreign investors. Just this week Warren Buffett piled into Japanese conglomerates. The main stockmarket index has more than doubled on Mr Abe’s watch, having barely budged for the previous decade.

    公司治理也得到了顯著改善。幾乎所有大型上市公司都至少有一名獨立董事,而在2012年,這一比例還不到40%。這反過來又增加了日本對外國投資者的吸引力。就在本週,沃倫•巴菲特大舉投資了多家日本企業集團。在安倍的領導下,日本主要的股市指數上漲了一倍多,而在他上任前的十年間該指數幾乎沒有任何變化。

    Although Mr Abe leaves lots of unfinished business, he also leaves his successor the tools to complete the job. Perhaps his most important and least recognised achievement is to have made Japan more governable. He managed to quell, at least for now, factional jockeying within the LDP, which doomed previous prime ministers to short, turbulent stints in office.

    儘管安倍留下了許多尚未完成的任務,但他也給繼任者留下了完成任務所需的工具。他最寶貴同時也最不為人所知的成就或許就是讓日本變得更容易治理。他設法平息了(至少就目前而言)自民黨內部的派系爭鬥,這些爭鬥註定了前幾任首相短暫而動盪的任期。

    And he brought the bureaucracy, which used to run the show as the politicians rotated, more firmly under the control of its elected bosses. Japan’s economy, in particular, still needs a lot of help. But if the next prime minister manages to get anything done, it will be thanks in large part to the groundwork laid by Mr Abe.

    此外,他還加強了首相對官僚機構(每當人事變動時就容易出亂子)的控制。日本尤其在經濟上仍有待繼續提振。如若下一任首相能有所作為,那麼在很大程度上也要歸功於安倍所奠定的基礎。

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