By now, scientists have roundly debunked the theory that the coronavirus was created in a lab. But that hasn’t stopped nearly 30 percent of Americans from believing it, according to a recent Pew survey—and many of these believers have made the leap from that premise to the theory that a powerful villain unleashed the virus to control the population. (Billionaire philanthropists George Soros and Bill Gates are on the short list, although conspiracy theorists aren’t ruling out the Clintons.) When the Black Lives Matter movement gained momentum in the midst of the pandemic, another wave of believers embraced conspiracy theories linking the two phenomena, including the rumor that Soros had instigated the protests as the next step in his path to world domination.
現在，科學家們已經徹底駁斥了新冠病毒是實驗室創造出的這一流言，但根據最近的Pew調查，這並不妨礙近30%的美國人相信這一流言，而且很多這一流言的擁躉從這一假設，跳到了“一個強大的惡棍為了控制人口而故意釋放這一病毒”這一理論。（億萬富翁慈善家喬治索羅斯和比爾蓋茨都在嫌疑人名單之列，但陰謀論者們也沒有將克林頓一家排除在外。）當隨著疫情發展，Black Lives Matter（黑人命也是命）活動如火如荼展開之時，另一波人開始接受了一些將兩個現象聯絡起來的陰謀論，其中包括：是索羅斯鼓動了這些抗議，目的是為了統治世界。
Both Covid-19 and systemic racism pose real life-or-death dangers. So why are so many people becoming preoccupied instead with threats that have no grounding in reality? It’s partly because of the magnitude of the real threats, psychologists say. Studies show that conspiracy theories tend to snowball during times of crisis, when fear is rampant and clear explanations are in short supply. They appeal in part because they offer a straightforward narrative and someone to blame. But researchers are starting to pay more attention to these theories, and the motives and mechanisms that drive them, as it becomes clear that they aren’t a harmless method for coping with the unknown. They can have truly damaging consequences in the real world.
新冠病毒和體系化的種族歧視都會造成切實的生命威脅，那麼，為什麼這麼多人依舊堅信那些毫無事實證據的威脅呢？根據心理學家所說，部分原因在於真正威脅的嚴重性。研究顯示，在危機時期，當恐懼瀰漫，又缺乏清晰解釋時，陰謀理論往往會愈演愈烈。它們的部分魅力在於，它們簡單易懂，而且明確指出責任物件。由於這些陰謀理論很明顯已經不再是一種應對未知情形的無害方式，研究人員們開始更重視這些陰謀論，以及這些陰謀論背後的動機與機制。在現實世界中，它們會造成真正的破壞型後果。
At the core of every conspiracy theory is the idea that a powerful person, or group of people, is secretly hatching a dastardly scheme. Almost anything that makes headlines can spawn these theories, especially when there’s room for confusion about what really happened.
每個陰謀論的核心，都是一個或一群強大的人，密謀一個邪惡計劃。
The coronavirus pandemic is a particularly fertile breeding ground for such thinking, says Roland Imhoff, a social psychologist at Germany’s Johannes Gutenberg University: It’s terrifying, not well understood, and happening on a massive scale. And in the face of pandemic-level panic, our minds have a tendency to seek explanations that match the intensity of our feelings. “To say that the whole world has come to a halt because a teeny-weeny virus jumped from a bat to another animal and then to a guy in a Chinese market seems too insignificant an explanation,” Imhoff says. “But a conspiracy theory that has thousands of people in cahoots? That seems more proportional.”
德國 Johannes Gutenberg 大學社會心理學家 Roland Imhoff 表示，新冠疫情尤其是這種陰謀思維的肥沃土壤：它很可怕，而且人們對其並無充分了解，而且它規模龐大。當面對全球疫情級別的恐慌時，我們的大腦會傾向於尋找能夠與我們感受強烈程度相匹配的解釋。“要說整個世界陷於停滯，只是因為一個小小的病毒從一個蝙蝠身上跳到另一個動物身上，然後跳到一箇中國市場中的一個人身上，這種解釋聽起來太不夠分量，” Imhoff說道，“但一個涉及到數千人合夥密謀的陰謀理論？這種說法在分量上就好像更匹配。”
Past health crises, from the AIDS epidemic to the Zika outbreak, gave rise to theories eerily similar to those circulating today about coronavirus. At times like these, conspiracy theories are more appealing than the truth because they offer the possibility of control, Imhoff says. We can thwart an evil plan, at least hypothetically. But we can’t thwart the unseen forces of nature.
過去的衛生危機，從艾滋到Zika，都催生了和如今新冠病毒相關種種陰謀論類似的理論。在這類時刻，陰謀論比真相更吸引人，因為它們給予了“控制的可能性”。我們能夠阻礙一個邪惡的計劃，至少假設上來說能夠做到。但我們卻無法阻礙看不見的自然力量。
“Conspiracy theories make a very tempting promise: Just stop the villain and you get your life back. That’s what we all want,” he says. “It’s a charming narrative that’s very easy to buy into: Just stop Bill Gates from polluting the airwaves with 5G and we can go out again and our kids can go back to school.”
“陰謀理論給出了非常誘人的承諾：只要去阻止那個壞蛋，你就能活命。這是人人所追求的”，他說道，“這是一種非常吸引人、讓人易於相信的說辭：只要阻止比爾蓋茨用5G汙染電波，我們就能出門，我們的孩子就可以回學校上學了。”
It’s no surprise that so many people are currently in thrall to this narrative. But studies show that some people are especially prone to these beliefs, even without the motivating uncertainty of a global health crisis. Researchers have found that this “conspiracy mentality” correlates with particular personality traits, including low levels of trust and an increased need for closure, along with feelings of powerlessness, low self-esteem, paranoid thinking, and a need to feel unique.Some research has also found that conspiracy beliefs are associated with lower levels of education and analytic thinking.
現在如此多的人接受這種說法，不足為奇。但研究顯示，一些人尤其易於受到這種說法的影響，即使當並沒有全球衛生危機這類不確定性時，依舊如此。研究人員發現，這種“陰謀思維”與特定的性格特徵相關，其中包括：
低信任程度、
對終結感有更高需求、
無助無力感、
低自尊、
被害妄想思維，
以及需要感到自己獨特。
一些研究也發現，
陰謀論也與較低的教育水平和較差的分析思維能力相關。
“It’s a worldview that believes nothing happens without a reason and that there are sinister forces at work behind the curtain,” Imhoff says. “It’s a fairly stable worldview, so it doesn’t really matter what happens—that will be their interpretation.”
“這是一種相信任何事情都不會無端發生，而且幕後總是會有邪惡力量的世界觀”，Imhoff說道，“這是一種相對穩定的世界觀，因為，無論發生什麼，他們都會如此解讀。”
*Hypersensitive agency detection or teleologic thinking，a cognitive bias whereby events are overattributed to hidden forces, purposes, and motives. *高敏感能動性探測/目的論思維：一種認知偏見，將事件過度歸因於隱藏力量、目的和動機。
Still, roughly half of the U.S. population believes in at least one political or medical conspiracy theory, so it’s hard to define these beliefs as abnormal, says UCLA psychiatrist Joseph Pierre. “One thing to emphasize is that we all have needs for closure, uniqueness, and the like. It’s more a matter of some of these needs or biases being stronger among those who believe in conspiracy theories,” he says.
但依舊有一半的美國民眾相信至少一種政治或醫療陰謀理論，因此，很難去界定說這些觀點是不正常的，UCLA精神病學家 Joseph Pierre說道，“要強調的一點是，我們都需要一種終結感，獨特感以及其他類似需求，這更像是，其中一些需求或偏見在陰謀論擁躉身上更強烈而已。”
Conspiracy thinking can also be attributed to external forces, including racial and social inequity, that erode our trust in authority figures, Pierre argues. When people lose their faith in official accounts, their search for answers often takes them “down the rabbit hole,” he says. “Most ‘conspiracy theorists’ aren’t theorizing so much as they’re looking for answers and finding ones that resonate with the mistrust that got them searching in the first place.”
陰謀論也可以歸因於侵蝕我們對權威人物信任的外界因素，其中包括種族和社會不平等等。Pierre表示。當人們對官方說法失去信任，他們在尋找答案時就常常會遇到各種陰謀理論。“很多陰謀論者與其說在編造理論，不如說是在尋找答案，而且找到了那些能夠與最初促使他們尋找答案的不信任感產生共鳴的理論。”（Pierre的原話中，將這類尋找答案的人描述為 “Dilettantes looking for answers" ”/“試圖尋找答案的半吊子。”）
Real Dangers/切實危害
On its own, belief in conspiracies isn’t inherently dangerous or wrong, psychologists say. After all, sometimes powerful people really are hatching secret schemes. If Edward Snowden hadn’t suspected that top U.S. intelligence officials were engaged in a massive wiretapping conspiracy, for example, he couldn’t have exposed the NSA’s very real covert surveillance program.
心理學家表示，相信陰謀理論本身並不危險，也非錯誤。畢竟，有時的確有權力人物密謀計劃。如果愛德華·斯諾登沒有懷疑美國情報官員參與規模龐大的竊聽，那麼，他也就不可能揭露美國國家安全域性的秘密監視計劃。
Skepticism toward people in power is part of a healthy democracy, Imhoff argues. It enables the checks and balances that prevent abuses and ultimately protect the public. But people with a conspiracy mindset distrust nearly everyone—especially experts. And that becomes problematic when it leads to an erosion of credibility that puts scientists on the same level as someone who just posted a video on YouTube.
對權力人物的懷疑，也是健康民主制度的一部分，Imhoff表示。它能夠作為權衡制度防止權力濫用，最終可以捍衛民眾。但有陰謀思維的人幾乎不信任任何人，尤其是專家。而當這種思維侵襲可信度，將科學家和一個在Youtube上面剛剛上傳了一個影片的人放在相同層次時，那麼就會有問題了。
Even more troubling, conspiracy thinking is correlated with a tendency toward violent thoughts and fantasies, and to some degree with real violence. University of Miami political scientist Joseph Uscinski found that people who were generally inclined to believe in conspiracy theories were twice as likely as nonbelievers to agree that violence was an acceptable form of political protest. Some, such as Timothy McVeigh, whose suspicions of the federal government led to the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing, have even committed atrocities on the basis of conspiracy beliefs.
而更有問題的是，陰謀傾向思維與暴力念頭和幻想是相關的，而且在一定程度上與實際暴力也相關。邁阿密大學政治科學家Joseph Uscinski發現，整體傾向於相信陰謀論的人，在認同暴力是一種可以接受的政治抗議形式方面，其可能性是其他人群的兩倍。而一些人，比如因懷疑聯邦政府而導致1995年俄克拉荷馬市卡車炸彈事件的Timothy Mcveigh，則基於陰謀理論而犯下切實暴行。
Conspiracy-motivated terrorists like McVeigh are rare, Uscinski says, but less egregious examples abound, especially among the new wave of coronavirus-related conspiracy believers. There are the dozens of 5G cell towers that have been vandalized in the U.K. because of the theory that 5G tech is being used to spread the virus—and the rising number of hate crimes against Asian-Americans.
基於陰謀論的恐怖分子，如McVeigh等並不多見，Uscinski說道。但其他一些並不如此嚴重的案例卻非常多，尤其在新一波的新冠病毒相關陰謀論者人群中。在英國，有數十個5G訊號塔被破壞，原因是5G科技被用於傳播新冠病毒這一陰謀論，而且，對亞裔美國人的仇恨犯罪數量也出現攀升。
Increased belief in vaccine-related conspiracy theories—including that the vaccines cause autism or are being used to implant microchips—has already led to a resurgence of measles and other preventable illnesses in some areas. And coronavirus-related theories could have even more devastating public health effects. Assuming that a successful coronavirus vaccine becomes available, an Associated Press poll found that 20 percent of Americans said they would refuse the vaccine and 31 percent weren’t sure if they would get it—which could keep the U.S. from achieving herd immunity and put vulnerable people at risk.
越來越多的人接受與疫苗相關的陰謀理論——其中也包括疫苗會導致自閉症，或者被用於植入晶片——已經在一些地區導致了麻疹和其他可預防疾病的捲土重來。而且，與新冠病毒相關的陰謀理論也可能會導致更嚴重的公眾衛生後果。假設已研發出成功的新冠疫苗，美聯社的一項民調顯示，20%的美國人說他們會拒絕該疫苗，31%的人則不確定是不是要選擇注射——這可能就會導致美國無法實現群體免疫，並將易感人群置於險境。
Believers of the many competing theories about the coronavirus have one thing in common: an unwillingness to follow the guidance of public health officials, according to research by New York University's Anni Sternisko and colleagues. Sternisko found that people who bought into these theories were less likely to engage in social distancing or to support public health policies aimed at limiting contagion, regardless of whether they believed the virus was a hoax or a lab-grown bioweapon.
根據紐約大學 Anni Sternisko和其同事的調查，關於新冠病毒，相信種種其他理論的人，有一個共同點：不願意遵循公眾衛生官員的指導。Sternisko發現，接受這些理論的人更不大可能去遵守社交距離或其他旨在限制傳染的公眾衛生政策，無論他們是相信這一病毒只是一個噱頭，或者是實驗室製造的生化武器。
And there’s a good chance that some people who believe the virus is a hoax also believe it’s a bioweapon, Douglas says. One of the quirks of conspiracy belief is that people are able to embrace multiple theories simultaneously—even when those theories contradict each other.
而且，一些噱頭論者也很可能同時也相信生化武器論。Douglas說道。關於陰謀論，其中一個很奇怪的特徵就是，人們能夠同時接受多個理論——即使這些理論相互矛盾。
In a study published in 2012, Douglas found that people who believed one conspiracy theory were more likely to believe another, even if it was logically impossible for both to be true. For example, the more someone believed the theory that Princess Diana faked her own death, the more they believed she’d been murdered by British secret agents.
2012年釋出的一項研究中，Douglas發現，相信一種陰謀理論的人，更可能同時也相信其他陰謀理論，即使邏輯上而言二者不能同時為真。例如，一個人越相信戴安娜王妃製造了自己死亡假象，他就越可能相信她被英國秘密特工謀殺。
How is this possible? Douglas concluded that people who are prone to conspiracy thinking are so quick to see a cover-up that they’re willing to let the logical niceties slide. “The core underlying idea of most conspiracy theories is that the official line is not to be trusted. The details might not even matter that much,” she says. “You’re prepared to at least entertain the two ideas at the same time, even if they’re not consistent with each other, because they are consistent with the idea that you need to be on your guard against the official explanation. You just know something is up.”
這怎麼可能呢？Douglas的結論是，傾向於陰謀論思維的人能夠很敏銳地察覺到掩飾，因此他們願意對邏輯上的細節視若無睹。“大多數陰謀理論的核心信念在於，官方說法是不可被信任的。細節可能甚至根本沒那麼重要。”她說道，“你會願意去同時接納至少兩種觀點，即使兩種觀點並不一致。因為它們與你的需求是一致的，即，你需要提防官方解釋。你直覺上知道，這背後，另有隱情。”
The problem for believers is that embracing these theories is an ineffective way to deal with our anxieties, Douglas says. They offer a sense of certainty, but they also make us believe that malevolent forces are out to get us, which in most cases is scarier than the truth.
對於相信陰謀論的人而言，問題在於，接受這些理論，並不能有效應對他們的焦慮，Douglas說道，這些陰謀理論提供了一種確定感，但同時也讓我們相信有惡意力量在對抗我們，這在很多時候都比真相要更恐怖。
“That can make you feel even worse—more out of control, more uncertain,” she says. “It becomes a bit of a cycle.”
“這會讓你感覺更糟糕——更沒有控制感和確定感，”她說，“這就有些成為了一種迴圈”。
Putting Out the Fire/撲滅陰謀之火
How can we stop conspiracy theories from spreading? It’s a critical question, especially now, researchers say—and there’s no easy answer. After all, conspiracy theories have always existed, and no amount of counterevidence has been able to change the minds of people who still think the moon landing was fake or that JFK's assassination was the work of a “deep state” conspiracy.
我們如何能夠阻止陰謀理論的傳播？這是一個關鍵問題，尤其現在，研究人員說到，而且並沒有簡單的答案。畢竟，陰謀理論一直都存在，沒有任何反證能夠讓那些依舊相信登月造假，或JFK刺殺是政府深暗勢力陰謀的人改變想法。
The difference is that the stakes have never been higher when it comes to believing misinformation. “The consequence of believing the earth is flat or the moon landing was staged is basically nothing—no one’s harmed by that. But in a pandemic, you could potentially have deaths on a massive scale if people believed the pandemic was a hoax,” says NYU social psychologist Jay Van Bavel.
但區別在於，當涉及到相信錯誤資訊時，危害從未如此之高。“相信地球是平面的，或登月造假，基本上沒有什麼後果，沒有人會因此受到傷害。但在全球疫情背景下，如果人們依舊認為疫情只是一個噱頭，那麼就可能會導致大規模死亡，”紐約大學心理學家 Jay Van Bavel說道。
Recent efforts by Twitter and Facebook to crack down on misinformation—including the QAnon conspiracy theories, which center on the belief that a powerful cabal of pedophiles and Satanists is working to undermine the president—are a step in the right direction, Van Bavel believes.
Twitter和 Facebook 近期打擊虛假資訊——包括QAnon陰謀理論（該類理論主要是認為一群戀童癖和撒旦主義者組成陰謀集團，暗中對總統搞破壞）的行為是一個正確舉動。Van Bavel認為。
But social media isn’t solely responsible for the spread of these theories, Uscinski says. We can’t even say for certain whether conspiracy theories are any more prevalent or influential now than in the past—just look at the witch trials of the 17th century and the Illuminati panics of the early 19th century. The fact that social media can carry theories like these farther, wider, and faster doesn’t mean that a greater proportion of people will ultimately believe them.
但社交媒體並非這些陰謀論傳播的唯一原因，Uscinski說道。我們甚至無法說如今陰謀論比以前是否更廣為流傳或更具影響力——只要看一下17世紀的女巫審判以及19世紀的光明會陰謀論即可。雖然社交媒體能夠更廣更遠更快速傳播各種理論，但並不意味著會有更高比例的人最終相信它們。
“When we poll about the moon landing conspiracy, we find only about 5 percent of people buy into it. Given how many people have heard of it, which is almost 100 percent, you’d think that number would be higher,” he says. “Why isn’t it? Because people have filters. They don’t believe everything they read.”
“當我們調查登月陰謀論時，我們發現只有5%的人相信。考慮到聽說過該理論人群的數量，即100%，你可能會以為本該有更多的人相信這一理論才對，”他說，“但為什麼不是這樣呢？因為人們也有過濾體系，他們也並非相信他們讀到的任何資訊。”
On the other hand, banning individuals who post these theories—as Facebook and Twitter did with conspiracy theorist Alex Jones, who claimed, among other things, that the Sandy Hook shooting was staged—could give their claims more credence among those who are predisposed to believe conspiracy theories, Sternisko argues.
另一方面，禁止人們釋出這些理論——如Facebook和Twitter對陰謀論者 Alex Jones（他聲稱 Sandy Hook小學持槍射擊事件只是刻意安排的演戲）的舉措——可能會讓傾向於陰謀論的人更相信這些理論，Sternisko說道。
“People who are prone to believe conspiracy theories might take this as evidence that Jones is onto something and got censored because the government didn’t want people to hear it,” she says. “There is some data showing that these steps can backfire.” Sternisko and other researchers say the most successful efforts to fight conspiracy theories give people the tools they need to question false claims for themselves.
“傾向於相信陰謀論的人可能會將此視為證據，認為Jones說的有道理，因此遭到了審查，因為政府不想要大眾知道這些資訊，”她說道，“有些資料顯示，這類舉措可能會適得其反。”Sternisko和其他研究人員表示，抵抗陰謀理論，最有效的方式，是給人們所需的工具，讓人們能夠自己去質疑這些虛假理論。
Ridicule and argument don’t appear to be effective strategies if you’re trying to change hearts and minds. At their core, conspiracy beliefs are often rooted in lack of trust in institutions. So, when conspiracy theories are related to science like with flat-earthers or anti-vaxxers, it means that science educators have to revamp our efforts, being mindful of what works and what doesn’t.
如果想要讓人回心轉意，嘲笑和爭辯似乎並非有效策略。核心而言，陰謀論通常植根於對機構缺乏信任。因此，當陰謀論涉及到諸如地球平面說或反對疫苗等科學問題時，這意味著科學教育者需要調整舉措，注意哪些有些哪些無效。
“We should make people more science-literate and more media-literate, and these things can be taught early on,” Uscinski says. “There is some evidence that courses in critical thinking actually work in making people less susceptible.”
“我們應該讓人們更懂科學，面對媒體，有更好的明辨是非的能力。這些能力，可以很早就教給大眾，” Uscinski說道，“有一些證據表明，在批判性思維方面的課程，的確能夠讓人們不那麼易於受到陰謀論的影響。”
Right now, people are just trying to make sense of a frightening, confusing time. The more facts they’re equipped with, the less powerless they’ll feel—and the harder it will be for conspiracy theories to take hold, especially when it comes to the coronavirus, Sternisko says. “The more we learn about this virus, the fewer gaps people have to fill with conspiracy theories,” she says. “If there is so much information that contradicts their false notions, at some point people who aren’t diehard conspiracy theorists will have to update their beliefs. They’re not deluded—they just want to understand and have certainty.”
當下，人們只是試圖搞清楚目前的恐怖與困惑。他們越掌握更多事實，他們就越不容易感到無助——那麼陰謀論也就更不容易紮根，尤其當面對新冠病毒時，Sternisko說道。“我們對這一病毒瞭解的越多，人們需要用陰謀論來填補的空白就會越少，”她說道，“如果有如此多的資訊來駁斥他們的錯誤認知，在某一時刻，不那麼堅定捍衛陰謀論的人就會更新他們的理念。他們不是糊塗，他們只是想要了解真相，想要有確定性。”
For those who are so far down the rabbit hole that they’re putting out those videos themselves, with their identities (and sometimes incomes) depending on them, it’s not clear what it might take to get someone to back down. When beliefs are tightly tied to identity, they can be highly resistant to change.
而對於那些過於堅信，以至於自己也發影片的人，他們的身份（有時是收入）是取決於這些理論的，那麼，對於如何讓這些人退卻，就不得而知了。當信念與一個人的身份密切捆綁，那麼，他們會高度抗拒改變。