RBI's downgrading of FY20 growth means the $5 trillion GDP goal may have to wait longer

印度儲備銀行下調2020財年的經濟增長預期，意味著5萬億美元的GDP目標可能需要更長的時間才能實現

The Reserve Bank of India has once again downgraded the growth forecast to 5 per cent in its fifth bi-monthly policy from 6.1 per cent two months ago. It has revised the growth to 4.9-5.5 per cent in H2 and 5.9-6.3 per cent for H1 2020-21.

印度央行在其第五次雙月政策會中，再次將經濟增長預期從兩個月前的6.1%下調至5%。該機構將第二季度的經濟增長率修正為4.9- 5.5%，並將第一季度的增長率修正為5.9- 6.3%。

While improved monetary transmission and a quick resolution of global trade tensions are possible upsides to growth projections, a delay in revival of domestic demand, a further slowdown in global economic activity and geo-political tensions are downside risks.

雖然貨幣政策帶來的的改善和全球貿易緊張局勢的迅速解決可能對增長預測有利，但國內需求復甦的延遲、全球經濟活動的進一步放緩和地緣政治緊張局勢帶來了下行風險。

The third revision of the full year economic growth estimate by the RBI comes in the backdrop of the second quarter GDP growth falling to 4.5 per cent from 5 per cent in the first quarter.

印度央行對全年經濟增長預測的第三次修正，是在第二季度國內生產總值增幅從第一季度的5%降至4.5%的背景下做出的。

Second quarter GVA was reported at 4.3 per cent.

第二季度的GVA為4.3%。

Experts feel that there will be a pick up in the coming quarters on the back of steps taken by the go nment in the form of infrastructural boost, corporate tax cut, liberalising FDI, ensuring flow of credit to non-banks and more capital infusion. However, the ultimate outcome is yet to be achieved in terms of real time growth.

專家們認為，在政府採取的措施的支援下，未來幾個季度將會出現回升。這些措施包括：基礎設施建設、企業減稅、放開外國直接投資、確保非銀行信貸流動以及更多的資本注入。然而，就實時增長而言，最終結果還有待實現。

A 12 percent nominal growth was required to achieve the $5 trillion economy by 2024-25. However, with economy growing at 6.1 per cent which is almost as half the estimation, it has become more challenging to accomplish the set target.

要在2024- 2025年之前實現5萬億美元的經濟規模，需要12%的名義增長率。然而，隨著經濟增長率降到6.1%，幾乎只有預期的一半，實現既定目標變得更具挑戰性。

Almost all lead indicators for the second quarter painted a picture of gloom. The index of industrial production showed contraction in the months of August and September, led by contraction in the manufacturing and capital goods sector.

第二季度幾乎所有的領先指標反映的都是一片黯淡景象。工業生產指數顯示，在8月和9月，製造業和資本貨物部門的收縮是主要原因。

The investment rate in the economy measured by Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) collapsed to just 1 per cent in the second quarter from 11.8 per cent in the same period last year.

第二季度，以固定資本形成總值(GFCF)衡量的中國經濟投資率僅為1%，去年同期為11.8%。

The go nment has undertaken a number of measures to revive investments. In September, it announced a cut in the corporate tax rate to 22 per cent from 30 per cent. It also lowered the tax rate for new manufacturing companies to 15 per cent to attract new foreign direct investments.

政府已經採取了一系列措施來恢復投資。今年9月，印度宣佈將企業所得稅率從30%下調至22%。為了吸引新的外國直接投資，印度還將新成立的製造企業所得稅率下調至15%。

Revisions in the growth forecast for FY20 by various rating agencies:-

Rating agency Crisil sharply cut its growth forecast for the current financial year to 5.1 per cent from an earlier estimate of 6.3 per cent.

各評級機構對20財政年度增長預測的修訂:-

評級機構Crisil大幅下調了本財年的增長預期，從此前估計的6.3%下調至5.1%。

The current fiscal year forecasts by Nomura has massively cut its GDP forecast to a low 4.9 per cent for the year from 5.7 per cent earlier, saying the economy is going through a "deeper trough" and even a sub-par recovery is at least a year away.

野村證券對當前財年的GDP預測，已大幅下調至4.9%的較低水平，而此前的預測為5.7%。野村表示，印度經濟正在經歷一個“更深的低谷”，即便是低於平均水平的復甦，也至少需要一年時間。

"India Ratings and Research has revised its GDP growth forecast for FY20 to 5.6 per cent. This is the fourth revision and has come in after the agency had revised its FY20 GDP growth forecast only a month ago to 6.1 per cent," the rating agency said in a statement.

該評級機構在一份宣告中表示：“印度評級和研究機構已將其20財年的GDP增長預測調高至5.6%。這是第四次調高，而就在一個月前，該機構還將20財年的GDP增長預測調高至6.1%。”

India First

In 2014 he promised Acche Din which of course never came , in 2019 - 5 trillion $ economy .....enjoy the hoodwinking

2014年，他承諾在2019年實現5萬億美元的經濟……哈哈，大忽悠

Vikram

Looks like RBI too are clueless and only slowly downgrading the GDP forecast. Truth is that this BJP govt has fudged data so much, now nobody has authentic data. The idiots Modi and Shah from BJP are only taking India backward.

看起來印度央行也無能為力，只能緩慢下調GDP預期。事實是這個人民黨政府捏造了很多資料，現在沒有人掌握真實的資料。來自印度人民黨的莫迪和沙阿只會讓印度倒退。

Dilip

Push it to 2029.

推遲到2029年。

Indian Only

I am confident that Jhumla Raja will take us to 5 trillion economy by next year - only 5 trillion INR, not USD.

我有信心，明年我們的經濟將達到5萬億——不過是5萬億印度盧比，非美元，哈。

Shadi Katyal

Why is it difficult for anyone to understand that no one is willing to invest in India where there is no Law and Order and Judiciary is impotent and sold out to ruling party. Modi has neither any talented economist nor financier who can tell him what to do. Planning commission was abolished as it was Nehru'd but M\\Niti Ayoug has produced nothing.Modi did not pay any attention to Economy but just empty talk adn was busy to control parliament and thus can pass any bill on voi e and need not worry about any opposition. Voters blindly voted and now the question is : ARE WE BETTER OFF THEN WHEN MODI TOOK OVER OVERALL?World has no respect for India and that is why Make in India failed.

為什麼每個人都不能理解沒有人願意在印度投資，因為印度沒有法律和秩序，司法系統無能，被執政黨掌控。莫迪政府沒有任何有才能的經濟學家或金融家可以告訴他該怎麼做。尼赫魯廢除了計劃委員會，但是M\\Niti Ayoug什麼也沒做。莫迪不關心經濟，只會空談，忙於控制議會，因此可以通過任何法案，不用擔心任何反對。選民們盲目地投票，現在的問題是：當莫迪全面掌權時，我們的情況會比現在好嗎？世界不尊重印度，所以“印度製造”失敗了。

Iyerravishankar Iyer

There was intense exchange of views about Onion Crisis. We should use simple logic. A Company manufactures products and sells products. Each and every stage of production has certain portion of costs involved. This is the case of Manufactured products. What about Fresh Produce. It is produced by farmers (it involves several stages in case of manufacturing). Farmers toil a lot and give Onion or other commodity. In case of Onion may be Rs. 2 or Rs. 3/-. From Farmers to Consumers, what value addition takes place? Nothing. Price to Farmer Rs. 2 to Rs. 3 or Rs.5. The Onion is sold in Mumbai at Rs.150. Who is eating away Rs.145/-. In case of Manufacturer, it is called Profiteering and several Companies were punished.Nobody is PUNISHING TRADERS- WHOLESALE/RETAILER. IN EACH EVERY STAGE, POLITICIAN IS INVOLVED. SOME POLITICIAN COLLECT "AFTA" FROM RETAIL TRADERS. THERE IS HUGE PROFITEERING ON NOT JUST ONIONS BUT ALL VEGETABLES / FRUITS.

他們就洋蔥危機進行了激烈的交換意見。我們應該使用簡單的邏輯。一家制造產品和銷售產品的公司。生產的每一個階段都涉及到一定的成本。這是製成品的情況。新鮮農產品呢？它是由農民生產的(它涉及到生產的幾個階段)。農民為了洋蔥和其他商品辛苦勞作。以洋蔥為例，也許2盧比，也許3盧比。從農民到消費者，出現了什麼增值？什麼都沒有。給農民的價格是2到3盧比或5盧比。這種洋蔥在孟買的售價為150盧比。剩下的145盧比被誰吃掉了？沒有人懲罰交易商——批發/零售商。在每一個階段，政治家都參與其中。不僅在洋蔥上，所有的蔬菜/水果都有巨大的利潤。

Anand Deshpande

$5 trillion economy is day dreaming of current govt. It shouldnot happen that economy slide to $0.5 trillion.

5萬億美元的經濟是當前政府的白日夢，不會發生，經濟會下滑到0.5萬億美元。

Surendra Sachdeva

All experts failed to manage onion price .Its impossible to achieve 5trillion $ economy with this team.

所有的專家都沒能管理好洋蔥的價格。

Hemant Pisat

$ 5 trillion economy was an agenda of Modi ji, and that is good on lips. The real economy was lumping at the time of this thumping in public. Modi completely entrusted the reins of finance to a person who doesn't have worldview neither a pragmatist. It is obvious, such decision making with bunch of babus have taken the economy to a slope where braking means tumbling down faster.So dreaming $5 trillion should be kept for another day.

5萬億美元的經濟是莫迪的一個噱頭，只是嘴上說說。在公眾面前遭受重創的時候，實體經濟卻步履蹣跚。莫迪完全把財政大權託付給了一個既沒有世界觀也不是實用主義者的人。因此，夢想中的5萬億美元只能寄希望於未來了。

Ash Man

The way things are going $5t looks like a target for 2029 instead of 2024.

按照目前的發展趨勢，5萬億應該是2029年的目標，而不是2024年。

Samar Chauhan

I believe one of the main reasons behind slowdown is uncertainty, this is causing hindrances in new investments, small or large.

我認為經濟放緩的主要原因之一是不確定性，這阻礙了新的投資，無論投資規模大小。

Disappointed Indian

It was just a jumla for elections now wait for a new one next time.

這只是選舉的噱頭，現在等待下一次新的選舉吧。

Truth Is Bitter

When Onion price reaches Rs 1000/-

當洋蔥價格漲到1000盧比時，會實現的。

Truth Is Bitter

5 Trillion ONIONS ???

5萬億洋蔥？

Sundarv

Wait ? Right . But for how long is the question .

等等，沒錯。但問題是能持續多久。

Aishvaraya Gupta

who says current gdp is 5% ...no industry is growing at 5% currently...in fact most are seeing degrowth..wonder from where this 5 trillion dollar figure is coming from

誰說現在的GDP增長率是5%…目前沒有任何一個行業增長率高於5%…事實上，大多數行業都在衰退。想知道這5萬億美元的數字是從哪裡來的。

Jaspinder Singh

India will reach 5 trillion mark someday, but not in present regime. Feku can promise anything without analyzing data.

印度總有一天會達到5萬億經濟規模，但不是現在。莫迪可以在不分析資料的情況下做出任何承諾。

Jaspinder Singh

This govt has lost its credibility. People at the helm are the biggest liers.

這個政府已經失去了信譽。掌舵人是最大的騙子。

Benoy Kumar Kumar

RBI is Frauder no 1 ,their Official Frauded me Rs.1,34,700 for transferred of my Fund which is under Custody of RBI.But they have not transferred of my Fund. They have digested my Rs.1,34,700. Matter has been reported to Governor RBI cepcbelapur and cepcnewdelhi no action has been taken still to day.

印度儲備銀行是第一號騙子，他們的官員轉移了我在印度儲備銀行保管的資金，騙了我1,34,700盧比。但是他們沒有轉移我的資金。他們只是吞掉了我的1,34,700盧比。此事已報告給印度央行行長cepcbelapur和cepcnewdelhi，但至今未採取任何行動。

Gross Bollywood Product

We're fast approaching recession. (We might actually be in one right now). BJP sarkar has proved that it cannot manage the country's affairs, except for handling masjid-mandir issue, triple talaq issue. It has failed miserably on every other front.

我們正迅速走向衰退(現在也許已經開始衰退了)。人民黨已經證明，除了處理問題、三重塔拉格問題外，他們無法管理國家事務。人民黨在其他所有方面都輸得一塌糊塗。

V N

Well, at the current growth rate of 5%, it will take 15 years for the economy to grow to $ 5 trillion. Of course, there is no harm in dreaming about it in the meantime!

按照目前5%的增長率，印度經濟需要15年才能達到5萬億美元規模。當然，在這段時間做做夢也沒有害處！

Enagula Nath

Till recently our NDA was boasting of jobless growth of6.5 %, not realizing that people were buying by withdrawing from their hard earned savings.Even today tax collected from middleclass is not used for infrasteuc development which would create jobs,instead it'sexcessively being used on welfare schemes.

直到最近，我們的團結進步聯盟還在吹噓6.5%的失業率增長，卻沒有意識到人們是在用他們辛苦掙來的錢來買單的。到現在，從中產階級徵收的稅收也沒有用於基礎設施建設（基礎設施建設本可以創造就業機會），相反，這些錢被揮霍在福利計劃中。

SRI

BLACK ECONOMY IS DEFINITELY SLOWING. REAL ESTATE IS CONFIRMING THAT.SOME PEOPLE ARE GREATLY UPSET AS THEY ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BLACK ECONOMY.WHITE ECONOMY IS DOING FINE AND STOCK MARKET IS SHOWING THAT AND GOOD FOR COMMPON MAN AND THE COUNTRY.

黑市經濟正在放緩。房地產市場證實了這一點。一些人非常沮喪，因為他們高度依賴黑市經濟。白色經濟發展良好，股票市場表現良好，這對整個國家和人民都有好處。

Shaleen Nath Tripathi

INDIA has grown more than 200% in the last 7 yrs in GDP at constant price terms after 2012... In 5yrs economy will more than double to $5 trillion...

2012年以後，按不變價格計算，印度過去7年的GDP增長超過200%。5年的經濟將翻倍，達到5萬億美元。

Kamal Jain

So this is the excuse for not reaching GDP of US$5T ? This is certain that one day India will achieve US$5T irrespective of regime !

所以這就是沒有達到5萬億GDP的藉口嘍？這是肯定的，有一天印度會實現5萬億經濟規模的，不管誰當政！

Shaleen Nath Tripathi

It doesn't matter that the Govt or RBI provide stimuli... The market forces of demand/supply or scale and prices are on autocorrect... Suppose real interest rates are high and investment is not increasing supply could go down and increase inflation which would cut the real interest rate...

政府或印度央行是否提供刺激並不重要…需求/供應的市場力量或規模和價格都在自動調整…假設實際利率很高，而投資沒有增加，那麼供給就會下降，通脹就會上升，從而降低實際利率。

P N N

Pipe dream about 5tn economy need efficient go nment not hallow /-false promise go nment.

5萬億經濟的白日夢需要高效的政府，而不是虛假的承諾。

Abc

What is the use of "forecasting" if you reduce your so called "forecast" every quarter?!

如果你每個季度所謂的“預測”都減少，那麼“預測”又有什麼用呢?