India’s growth collapse dramatic, govt should let deficit slip: Wood

伍德：印度經濟增長急劇下滑，政府應該讓赤字下滑

The severe correction in Indian midcap and smallcap stocks is reflecting the real pain in the Indian economy, says Christopher Wood, Global Head of Equity Strategy at Jefferies.

In an interaction with ETNow, he said midcap and smallcap stocks are the best plays on economic recovery as and when it happens. “We expect the economy to recover in next four quarters, and midcaps will start moving ahead of that,” he said.

BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices are down 18 per cent and 31 per cent, respectively, since January 2018, while the benchmark 30-share Sensex is up 20 per cent.

Wood is bullish on insurance and real estate stocks. “Insurance stocks potentially could do what private banks did in last 10 years. We also like realty stocks, which will benefit from RERA and have quality balance sheets,” he said.

Insurance players like HDFC LifeNSE 1.03 % Insurance, ICICI LombardNSE 0.95 % General Insurance, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance and SBI Life Insurance gained 48 per cent, 72 per cent, 29 per cent and 38 per cent, respectively, between January 1, 2018 and December 6, 2019. On the other hand, General Life Insurance and The New India Assurance have slipped 35 per cent and 53 per cent, respectively, in the same period.

傑富瑞全球股票策略主管克里斯托弗•伍德表示，印度中小盤股的大幅回撥，反映出印度經濟的真正痛點。

在與ETNow的互動中，他表示中小盤股是經濟復甦的最佳選擇。"我們預計經濟將在未來四個季度復甦，中小盤股將在這之前開始走強，"他說。

自2018年1月以來，BSE中盤和小盤指數分別下跌了18%和31%，而基準的30股Sensex指數上漲了20%。

伍德看好保險和房地產類股。保險類股有可能實現私人銀行過去10年所做的事情。我們也喜歡房地產類股，它們受益於RERA，並擁有優質的資產負債表，”他表示。

2018年1月1日至2019年12月6日期間，HDFC LifeNSE保險公司、ICICI LombardNSE普通保險公司、ICICI保誠人壽保險公司和SBI人壽保險公司等保險公司的股價分別上漲了48%、72%、29%和38%。另一方面，同期普通人壽保險和新印度保險的股價分別下跌了35%和53%。

Wood said he is biased towards Indian corporate banks right now as bulk of their provisioning cycle is over. “NPA issues for the banking sector gradually getting over,” he said.

The Asian market veteran said India’s economic slowdown has been due to shock treatment of reforms. He called the collapse of growth this year in India as dramatic.

“Structural reforms combined with NBFC liquidity squeeze and RERA impacted growth,” he said.

The Reserve Bank of India recently lowered its growth forecast for this financial year to 5 per cent from an earlier estimate of 6.1 per cent on account of weak domestic and external demand.

Wood said demonetisation followed by the implementation of goods and services tax (GST) caused a lot of pain to small entrepreneurs. “The market will be relieved if the go nment accepts the slowdown and let its fiscal deficit target expands,” he said.

Commenting on global trade tensions, Wood said the US-China trade deal can trigger big flows into emerging markets. “If the US dollar peaks, then flows can continue to emerging markets.”

He said he holds no view on 2020 until there’s clarity on US-China trade deal, but said gold can do very well due to central bank policies.

Wood表示，他目前看好印度股份銀行，因為它們的撥備週期已經結束。他表示:“銀行部門的不良資產問題正在逐步得到解決。”

這位亞洲市場資深人士表示，印度經濟放緩是由於改革的衝擊。他稱今年印度經濟增長的崩潰是戲劇性的。

“結構性改革加上NBFC的流動性緊縮和RERA對經濟增長造成了影響，”他表示。

由於國內外需求疲弱，印度央行最近將本財年的增長預期從此前的6.1%下調至5%。

伍德說，商品和服務稅實施後的廢鈔令給小企業家帶來了很大的痛苦。他表示:“如果政府接受經濟放緩，並擴大其財政赤字目標，市場將會鬆一口氣。”

在談到全球貿易緊張局勢時，伍德表示，美中貿易協定可能引發大量資金流入新興市場。“如果美元見頂，那麼資金就可以繼續流向新興市場。”

他表示，在中美貿易協議明朗之前，他對2020年的情況不抱任何看法，但他表示，由於中國央行的政策，黃金可能會表現良好。

Patel

Govt. has done good for nothing in the past 6 years as far as economy is concerned the focus has been being in power And showoff worldwide hope govt. Start working on present setback faced by the economy instead of trying to convince people about the better future prospects that no one has seen.

過去6年內政府在經濟方面一無是處。政府的重心一直在掌權，並在全球範圍內炫耀，希望政府開始著手解決經濟目前面臨的挫折，而不是試圖說服人們相信沒人見過的更好的未來。

Jagdish Devgan

This recipe of 'let deficit slip and grow' is a dangerous line. Not only Wood, but even MMS,Abhijit,Rajan have all suggested that. The problem is that if deficit is allowed to slip in a big way, it will unleash inflation and cause a lot of difficulties to common people. That Modi will never permit. One of the hallmark of Modi regime is low inflation. And that's why public in general is happy with Modi. We all know the cause of slower growth. It is Real Estate sector (and it's supplier industry). Real estate has traditionally thrived on black money. With black money in check to a great extent, with RERA and bankruptcy code in place and tighter bank scrutiny, Real Estate sector is feeling real pinch.This had to happen. A nation which has lived financial recklessness for too long, had to correct itself. I think Modi should stay on his path. High growth period will return, in max about one year and then it will be real growth to be proud of.

這種“讓赤字下滑並增長”的做法是危險的。不單單伍德，MMS，Abhijit，Rajan都這麼提議過。問題是，如果任由赤字大幅下滑，就會引發通貨膨脹，給老百姓帶來很多困難。這是莫迪永遠不會允許的。莫迪政權的標誌之一是低通脹。這就是為什麼公眾對莫迪很滿意的原因。我們都知道增長放緩的原因：房地產行業(也是供應商行業)。房地產傳統上是靠黑錢繁榮起來的。在很大程度上，隨著RERA和破產法的實施以及銀行審查的收緊，房地產行業感到了真正的壓力。這是必然發生的。一個長期以來在金融上魯莽行事的國家，必須進行自我糾正。我認為莫迪應該堅持自己的路線。最多一年後，高增長時期就將回歸，屆時將帶來真正值得印度人民驕傲的增長。

Raj Tillan

Real Estate is perverse sector . players in this segment is mafia no rules apply to them in realty . Unless Govt can enforce some discipline way forward is bumpy

房地產是一個有悖常理的行業。這個行業的玩家是黑手黨，沒有法規約束。除非政府能執行一些懲罰措施，否則前進的道路是坎坷的。

ToughTimesToughActio

unless the "subsidised" are less than 5% of those who work and produce, collapse is imminent. Stop subsidy to higher education and all but primary health care. Stop govt recruitment. Privatise. BAn unions. Link pay to performance. Make 70 hours a week work mandatory for survival.

除非得到“補貼”的人少於工作、生產的人的5%，否則經濟崩潰迫在眉睫。停止對高等教育和除初級衛生保健以外的所有領域的補貼。暫緩政府招聘，進行私有化，取締工會。將薪酬與績效掛鉤。為了生存，印度人每週必須工作70小時。

Subramaniam S

The frauds in the banks has increased seven fold in the last five years which is a matter of serious concern.

銀行的欺詐行為在過去五年中增加了七倍，這是一個令人嚴重關切的問題。

Shri Mahesh

Wait till you see the full effects of global recession affecting ALL. This is nothing. Good to collapse all the bubbles worldwide. Lets not pay for others. Jai Hind.

等著瞧吧，你會看到全球經濟衰退對所有人的全面影響。這沒什麼。世界範圍內所有的泡沫都破滅了。我們不要為別人買單。印度萬歲。

Ramamohana Kodali

Till now India got only fatty growth. Now the sustained muscular strength will start.

到目前為止，印度只有高脂肪增長。現在，持續的肌肉力量將開始。

Amit Kapoor

India is just an Hindu Pakistan.Failed poor and corrupt.

印度就是一個信奉印度教的巴基斯坦。一貧如洗、附敗氾濫。

Harish

only one solution to boost economy is allowing fiscal deficit by banning income tax and replacing with GST & transaction tax.

促進經濟增長的唯一解決辦法是通過禁止徵收所得稅、用消費稅和交易稅來代替，允許財政赤字。

Goswami Boy

Good assessment. Mid and small businesses were used to informal ways. Big ones had been formal, but had shady dealings. As he said, it is another 4 quarters when all the working styles get adjusted to formal ways.

這個分析判定很不錯。中小型企業習慣了不正規的做法。大公司都是正規的，但都有不正當的交易。正如他所說，所有的工作方式都要經過4個季度才能適應正規做法。

Praker

if deficit slips, then no one will believe in India. Credit rating of India will go down, funds will be pulled out of the country, risk rating will go up... we need to strict to the deficit numbers.

如果赤字下降，那麼沒有人會相信印度。印度的信用評級將下降，資金流出，風險評級上升……我們需要嚴格控制赤字規模。

Goswami Boy

Only stock market investors are after this. If someone wants to invest in India he will only think about pricing, volume and margins. If these are not favorable, they will not. Otherwise, investors come for cheaper R&D service or manufacturing service. But this is strictly not Indian market.

只有股市投資者才關注這一點。如果有人想在印度投資，他只會考慮價格、數量和利潤率。如果這些資料都不佳，他們就不會投資。另外，投資者為了更便宜的研發服務或製造服務而來。但印度市場絕對不符合要求。

Manalmed

spot on , cheaper service and free electricity for export oriented manufacturing. So in essence zero innovation and no real contribution to world market.Brahmin and Bania gangs can't tolerate any development of natives.

完全正確，要為以出口導向的製造業提供更便宜的服務和免費的電力。因此，從本質上來說，零創新，對世界市場沒有真正的貢獻。婆羅門和巴尼亞的幫派無法容忍當地人的任何發展。

Prakash Ramiah

There are only 2 languages,2 religions,2 castes in this world.people who have land,titled assets,capable of creating further titles assets,collects rent are one religion,caste,speak one language and those who pay rent,no titled assets no means to buy or create titled assets are another language,caste,religion. Pl add this para for discussion.

世界上只有兩種語言，兩種宗教，兩種種姓。那些擁有土地，有固定資產，能夠創造更多頭資產，收取租金的人是一種宗教，種姓，講一種語言；而那些支付租金的人，沒有固定資產，無法購買或創造其餘資產的人屬於另一種語言，種姓，宗教。請加上這段話，大家一起討論。

Goswami Boy

You should see a doctor to fix your hatred. Counselling might help. Our country became like this due to the reservation and hate for brahmin-bania. Brahmins had knowledge. Banias had marketing and distribution. Now zero innovation, freebies are because of your congress-co unist-minority-dalit culture.

你應該去看醫生，消除一下你的仇恨。諮詢可能對你會有所幫助。由於對婆羅門-巴尼亞的預留制和仇恨，我們的國家變成了這樣。婆羅門掌握知識。巴尼亞斯負責銷售和供應。現在的零創新，免費贈品都是拜你們的國會- -達利特文化所賜。

Nachiket Katha

First we are behind fiscal deficit target as per original fiscal responsibility and budget management act despite low oil prices which allowed go nment to reduce deficit. But this fiscal deficit is fradulent number to say the least. Firstly PSUs are forced to borrow to pay dividends. HAL which had 18000 crores of cash in the books in 2015 has to borrow money to pay salaries. Secondly ONGC is forced to borrow to purchase HPCL, FCI is forced to borrow,NHAI has not accounted 1.82 lakh crores of claims (they are following cash accounting for budget deficit) and so on. Actual deficit despite low oil prices is more than 4.5 per cent if accounted as per prudent accounting standards.

首先，我們的財政赤字目標落後於最初的財政責任和預算管理法案，儘管低油價降低了政府赤字。但至少可以說，這種財政赤字是不成熟的數字。首先，企業被迫舉債支付股息。印度斯坦航空在2015年有18億現金在冊，現在不得不借錢來支付工資。其次，印度石油天然氣公司被迫借款購買HPCL, FCI被迫借款，NHAI沒有佔到18.2萬億的債權(他們是按照現金入賬來計算預算赤字的)等等。如果按照謹慎的會計準則計算，儘管油價較低，但實際赤字仍超過了4.5%。

Rakesh Mital

very shallow analysis.. India's economy is not in a recession it is a growth slowdown...Govt is taking bold steps and will undertake structural reforms

十分淺顯的分析。印度經濟並沒有衰退，只是增長放緩。政府正在採取大膽的步驟，並將進行結構改革。

Veerendra Wasawade

Govt is funding corporate s where as consumers are do not have money to spend which has reduced demand. Consumers are offered loans. Future is corporates will have more reserve money which they cannot invest as there will be no demand where as ordinary people will become bankrupt or miser.

政府為那些沒有錢消費的企業提供資金，減少了需求。政府向消費者提供了貸款。未來，企業將有更多的準備金，但因為沒有需求，他們不能投資，而普通人會破產或變成守財奴。

Satinder Chadha

MSMEs are the backbone of any economy. They are versatile, innovative and change to the needs of the customer. Unfortunately they have been neglected from the past 5 years.

中小微企業是任何經濟體的支柱。他們是多功能的，創新的，並改變客戶的需求。不幸的是，他們在過去的5年裡被忽視了。

Goswami Boy

Well said. You seem to know the ground realities.

說得很好。你似乎很了解現實情況。

Manalmed

Yes he said that. China will move from 'emerging' to emerged soon. hardly any chance for india the same

是的，他是這麼說的。中國將很快從“新興”走向“興旺”。對印度來說，基本上沒有相同的機會。

Goswami Boy

China started on foundation laid in 1960s, not now. They enforced law, enforced identity. forced people to stay disciplined, not comment like you are doing now. Only good behavior and good mindset manifests into good outcomes.

中國是在上世紀60年代奠定的基礎上起步的，而不是現在。他們執行法律和身份。要求人們保持自律，而不是像你現在紙上空談。只有良好的行為和良好的心態才能帶來良好的結果。

Investor

you are a bigger IdioT. GST has made the market collapse. GDP growth is at a 30 year low. Demon has killed jobs. Small and Md caps are at a 2 year low. We need to kick out this useless govt. Stop BS-ing and just abusing Wood. He is indeed an Idiott, but you are a Bigger Idiott

你是個大白痴。商品服務稅讓市場崩潰。國內生產總值增速處於30年來的最低水平。小型基金和基金管理公司的上限處於2年低點。我們需要把這個沒用的政府踢出去。他的確是個白痴，但你是個更大的白痴。

Pradeep Dhankhar

r u in business or manufacturing??

你是商業或製造業從業人員嗎？

Goswami Boy

Yes. Many businessmen told GST is not an issue except for input credit delay of upto 3 months. Otherwise, the new way (non - black ) needs time to adjust to. This is what is causing the transitionary pain.

是的。許多商人說，除了投入信貸延遲最多3個月，商品服務稅不是問題。否則，新的方式需要時間來適應。這就是引起過渡陣痛的原因。

Investor

wood is an idiot who knows nothing. For last 2 years, he is harping on great growth, and fooling investors to buy stocks. never believe in this brokers.

伍德是個一無所知的白痴。在過去的兩年裡，他一直喋喋不休地談論經濟的高速增長，並愚弄投資者購買股票。永遠不要相信這個經紀人。