IMF says India in midst of significant economic slowdown, calls for urgent policy actions
國際貨幣基金組織說，印度經濟顯著放緩，需採取緊急政策
NEW DELHI: India is in the midst of a significant economic slowdown, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said, asking for urgent steps to reverse slowdown while continuing with credible fiscal consolidation.
國際貨幣基金組織表示，印度正處於嚴重的經濟放緩中，需要採取緊急措施來扭轉經濟放緩趨勢，同時繼續實施可靠的財政整頓。
The fund released Article IV consultation report on India in Washington on Monday.
週一，國際貨幣基金組織在華盛頓釋出了第四篇關於印度的報告。
"India is now in the midst of a significant economic slowdown…. Addressing the current downturn and returning India to a high growth path requires urgent policy actions,” Ranil Salgado of the IMF Asia and Pacific Department told reporters.
他說：“印度目前正處於嚴重的經濟衰退之中。應對當前的經濟衰退，使印度重新走上高速增長的道路，需要採取緊急的政策。”
India’s economic growth slumped to a six-year low of 4.5% in July-September quarter and many experts now expect full FY20 growth at below 5%.
印度經濟增速在7 - 9月跌至4.5%的6年低點，許多專家預計2020財年的增速將低於5%。
The report presented two scenarios with the second one pushing for significant reforms around three pillars to boost growth-—Firstly, ongoing clean-up of bank balance sheets should be complemented by a decisive strengthening of PSB governance and regulation and oversight of NBFCs, it said. Secondly, a medium-term fiscal consolidation path should be anchored by the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Review Committee’s recommendation to reduce general go nment debt toward 60% of GDP and thirdly, unveil labour, land and productivity reforms. The other scenario pointed ANIRBAN BORA that the country could grow by 7.3% in medium term riding on the back of reforms already taken such as Goods and Services Tax. It backed continuation of monetary easing, but cautioned against fiscal stimulus to boost growth.
報告提出了兩種情況，第二種情況是推動圍繞三大支柱進行重大改革，以提振增長。報告稱，首先，正在進行的銀行資產負債表清理工作，應輔以果斷加強國有銀行（PSB）治理和監管，並加強對非銀機構（NBFC）的監督。其次，中期財政整固路徑應以財政責任和預算管理審查委員會建議為基礎，該委員會建議將政府債務削減至GDP的60%。第三，公佈勞動力、土地和生產率改革。另一種情況是，在商品和服務稅等改革措施的推動下，阿尼班博拉的經濟在中期內可能增長7.3%。它支援繼續實施貨幣寬鬆政策，但警告不要通過財政刺激來提振增長。
Growth is projected at 6.1% in 2019-20, IMF said, while adding that risks are to the downside. IMF’s chief economist Gita Gopinath had last week said that India’s growth forecast is likely to revised down “significantly” in the upcoming January review.
IMF表示，印度2019年至2020年的經濟增長率預計為6.1%，並補充說，下行風險仍在加大。國際貨幣基金組織首席經濟學家Gita Gopinath上週表示，在即將到來的1月份評估中，印度的增長預測可能會“大幅”下調。
Credible medium-term fiscal consolidation path driven by subsidy-spending rationalisation and tax base-enhancing measures are needed to reduce debt, free up financial resources for private investment, and reduce the interest bill, the IMF said. It cautioned that the go nment has limited space to boost spending to support growth, especially given high debt levels and interest payments.
IMF表示，印度需要在補貼支出合理化和稅基增強措施的推動下，採取可信的中期財政鞏固措施，以減少債務、為私人投資釋放財政資源，並減少利息支出。報告警告稱，政府增加支出以支援經濟增長的空間有限，特別是考慮到債務水平和利息支付水平較高。
India's rapid economic expansion in recent years has lifted millions of people out of poverty. However, in the first half of 2019, a combination of factors led to subdued economic growth in India.
印度近年來的快速經濟擴張使數百萬人擺脫了貧困。然而，在2019年上半年，一系列因素導致印度經濟增長出現放緩。
The IMF in October slashed its forecast for 2019 by nearly a full point to 6.1%, while cutting the outlook for 2020 to 7.0%.
國際貨幣基金組織10月份將2019年的經濟增長預測下調了近一個百分點，至6.1%，同時將2020年的預測下調至7.0%。
Ankita Gupta
useful article
很有用的文章。
MANI Arumugam
In the present scenario, we need a competent person for the post of Finance Minister.As per Mr. Swamy's recent interaction with the public, we can give him a chance for him to be our FM. He can solve some of the chronical issues now India faces.
針對目前的形勢，我們需要一個稱職的人來擔任財政部長。根據斯瓦米先生最近與公眾的互動，我們可以給他一個機會讓他擔任我們的部長。他可以解決印度現在面臨的一些長期問題。
ST, Mumbai
Because they don't see eye to eye on a whole host of issues, the PM won't consider Dr. Subramanian Swamy, a PhD in Economics from Harvard University as Finance minister. Dr. Swamy is also a strident critic of govt. policies.
由於他們在一系列問題上意見不一，總理不會考慮讓哈佛大學經濟學博士薩勃拉曼尼亞·斯瓦米擔任財政部長。斯瓦米博士也是政府政策的尖銳批評者。
Indian Citizen
Though they tried to stall its implementation when they were in the opposition, the BJP was in a tearing hurry to implement GST once they formed the govt. So, they pushed through a half-baked piece of legislation. And, even had a special midnight session of Parliament to mark the roll out of Goods and Services Tax (GST) in the country. A gong sounded at midnight ‘announced’ that GST had arrived. GST was supposed to simplify a web of taxes, regulations and border levies by subsuming an array of central and state levies including excise duty, service tax and VAT – but that hasn't happened in spite of several amendments. Both GST and demonetisation has taken its toll on the smooth functioning of small businesses. The IMF has called for “urgent policy actions” to reverse the “significant economic slowdown” – i.e., growth in the second quarter of FY 2019/20 has come in at a six-year low of 4.5% (y/y). Ranil Salgado, Mission Chief for India in the IMF Asia and Pacific observed, “India already has a relatively high general go nment deficits and general go nment debt."
雖然他們作為反對黨時曾試圖阻止GST的實施，但人民黨組成政府後就急於實施GST，所以通過了一項不成熟的立法。甚至召開了午夜特別議會會議，推出商品和服務稅(GST)。半夜雞叫，“宣佈”消費稅落地。GST本應通過納入一系列中央和州徵收的消費稅(包括消費稅、服務稅和增值稅)來簡化稅收、監管和邊境稅的網路，但儘管進行了數次修訂，這一目標仍未實現。消費稅和廢鈔令都對小企業的順利運轉造成了影響。國際貨幣基金組織呼籲採取“緊急政策行動”來扭轉“嚴重的經濟放緩”。2019/20財政年度第二季度的經濟增長率為4.5%，為6年來的最低點。國際貨幣基金組織亞太地區印度事務負責人拉尼爾•薩爾加多表示：“印度的總體政府赤字和總體政府債務已經相對較高。”
ST
India already has a relatively high general go nment deficits and general go nment debt. Ranil Salgado, Mission Chief for India in the IMF Asia and Pacific is of opinion that new growth projections for India, which will come out in January, would be significantly lower than the previous ones. He added that the IMF had been surprised on India's slowdown.
印度已經有較高的政府赤字和政府債務。國際貨幣基金組織亞太地區印度事務負責人拉尼爾•薩爾加多認為，將於明年1月釋出的印度新增長預測，將顯著低於此前的預測。他補充稱，IMF對印度經濟放緩感到意外。
Analyst
No point in arguments. If GOI doesnt focus on economy and sort out problems, both go nment and citizens have to suffer. No point in blaming IMF. They just did their job.
沒有必要爭論。如果政府不關注經濟，不解決問題，政府和公民都要遭殃。指責IMF毫無意義。他們只是完成了他們的工作。
ST
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) consists of 189 countries working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate sustainable economic growth, reduce poverty around the world, etc. Ms. Gita Gopinath, a PhD in Economics from Princeton University, was appointed as Chief Economist of IMF on 1 October 2018. The IMF is mandated to oversee the international monetary and financial system and monitor the economic and financial policies of its member countries. Therefore, the IMF typically analyses the appropriateness of each member country's economic and financial policies for achieving orderly economic growth, and assesses the consequences of these policies for other countries and for theglobal economy.
國際貨幣基金組織由189個國家組成，致力於促進全球貨幣合作、確保金融穩定、促進可持續經濟增長、減少全球貧困等。普林斯頓大學經濟學博士Gita Gopinath女士於2018年10月1日被任命為IMF首席經濟學家。國際貨幣基金組織的職責是監督國際貨幣和金融體系，並監督其成員國的經濟和金融政策。因此，IMF通常會分析每個成員國為實現有序經濟增長而採取的經濟和金融政策的適宜性，並評估這些政策對其他國家和全球經濟的影響。
Yeshwant Pande
What gives Mr.Ranjth the idea that his idol has ideas ? The way the things have gone wrong show that nobody in the power has an iota of useful odeas.
是什麼讓ranjth先生覺得他的偶像有辦法？現在印度出問題了，這表明掌權者中沒有人可行的經驗。
Renjith
Narendra Modi has the ideas and the decisiveness but many of his programmes failed to make sweeping positive impact on the daily life of common man is because he is totally dependent on a century old lackluster bureaucratic system in India. He has so far failed to revamp the administrative system in India. If India needs to be developed then it must get rid of the British Raj era bureaucracy. In this highly competitive world, do you think such kind of a pathetic corrupt bureaucratic system can live up to the expectations a large country like India with such a huge population ? Just see the way the local administrative system in various states works..no accountability, no performance indicators, Govt servants come and do their job according to their wish. No credible check and balance. It is like building a house, if the foundation is weak, then the house would collapse. India has been on a weak and pathetic administrative/bureaucratic system since independence. There is no sweeping reforms in this key governance area. This is the main reason why a massive reform like GST remain less successful. Modi ji needs to act very fast on this. Dismantle the IAS...instead hire domain experts, make the administrative system strictly accountable, link their pay and benefits with their performance. I am sure the country will progress then.
納倫德拉•莫迪有想法和決斷力，但他的許多計劃未能對普通人的日常生活產生廣泛的積極影響，因為他完全依賴印度一個世紀以來乏善可陳的官僚體系。他迄今未能改革印度的行政體制。如果印度要發展，必須擺脫英國統治時期的官僚主義。在這個高度競爭的世界，你認為這樣一個可悲的附敗的官僚體系能夠滿足像印度這樣一個人口眾多的大國的期望嗎？看看各邦地方行政系統的運作方式就知道了。沒有問責制，沒有績效指標，公務員工作時完全看心情。沒有可信的制約手段。這就像建房子一樣，如果地基薄弱，房子就會倒塌。自獨立以來，印度一直是一個軟弱和可悲的行政/官僚體系。這就是為什麼像消費稅這樣的大規模改革無法成功的主要原因。莫迪應該儘快採取行動。僱傭各個領域的專家，行政系統採取嚴格問責制度，將他們的薪酬和福利與政績相掛鉤。我相信國家會進步的。
Sagacious JoKeR �
Renjith(Kerala): The Prime Minister's pre-election slogan was: Modi hai toh mumkin hai (with Modi, everything is possible). And now, you're trotting out excuses on his behalf for below par performance.
Renjith(喀拉拉邦)：總理選舉前的口號是：莫迪，一切皆有可能。而現在，你卻在為他表現不佳找藉口。
Sagacious JoKeR �
Renjith: “the main reason why a massive reform like GST remain less successful.” This statement reminded me of the adage: a BAD CARPENTER blames his tools.
Renjith:“為什麼像消費稅這樣的大規模改革仍然不那麼成功的主要原因。這句話讓我想起了那句格言：拙匠只會怪罪工具差。
Raman
@Renjith, By now all know that we have the most incompetent PM, who keeps talking about others pains and ideas and himself has no clue on administration. He has given key positions to his favorites, who are as bad as him. So expecting him to fix something is next to impossible. He will keep blaming everyone and keep enjoying the perks of the position.
@Renjith現在大家都知道我們有最無能的總理，他總是談論別人的痛苦和想法，而他自己對國家治理一無所知。他把關鍵職位給了和他一樣壞的親信。所以指望他來解決問題幾乎是不可能的。他會繼續指責每個人，繼續享受這個職位帶來的好處。
Indian Citizen
What 'urgent' action?? The FM Mrs. Nirmala Sitaraman has it all figured out. As a matter of fact she's so confident about the nation's economic growth, that onion price at over Rs. 100 a kilo didn't ruffle her.
“緊急”行動？尼爾瑪拉·西塔拉曼夫人已經把一切都弄清楚了。事實上，她對印度的經濟增長非常有信心，洋蔥價格超過每公斤100盧比也沒有讓她不安。
Bawarchi
Can't believe that the IMF is still forecasting a growth of 6% for India this year, no one else has a forecast of more than 4.6%. This Gita appears to be a SUPER ID10T.
不敢相信國際貨幣基金組織仍然預測印度今年的經濟增長率能達到6%，已經沒有人敢預測超過4.6%了。這個Gita似乎是一個超級白痴。
ST
The IMF is mandated to oversee the international monetary and financial system and monitor the economic and financial policies of its member countries. Therefore, the IMF typically analyses the appropriateness of each member country's economic and financial policies for achieving orderly economic growth, and assesses the consequences of these policies for other countries and for theglobal economy. Ms. Gita Gopinath, a PhD in Economics from Princeton University, was appointed as Chief Economist of IMF on 1 October 2018. Undoubtedly, she would play a significant part in the analyses of a member country's financial health.
國際貨幣基金組織的職責是監督國際貨幣和金融體系，並監督其成員國的經濟和金融政策。因此，IMF通常會分析每個成員國為實現有序經濟增長而採取的經濟和金融政策的適宜性，並評估這些政策對其他國家和全球經濟的影響。普林斯頓大學經濟學博士Gita Gopinath女士於2018年10月1日被任命為IMF首席經濟學家。毫無疑問，她將在分析一個成員國的財政健康狀況方面發揮著重要作用。
Indian Citizen
JoKeR: No way. Ms. Nirmala Sitaraman was always a “bench warmer”. That was her function as Defence minister. Because they don't see eye to eye on a whole host of issues, the PM won't consider Dr. Subramanian Swamy, a PhD in Economics from Harvard University as Finance minister.
JoKeR：不可能。Nirmala Sitaraman女士一直是個“候補”。這就是她作為國防部長的職責。由於他們在一系列問題上意見不一，總理不會考慮讓哈佛大學經濟學博士薩勃拉曼尼亞·斯瓦米擔任財政部長。
Sagacious JoKeR �
Bawarchi: The 48 year old Ms. Gita Gopinath, a PhD in Economics from Princeton University, is the John Zwaanstra Professor of International Studies and Economics at Harvard University – arguably the world's #1 university. Would Harvard University be associated in anyway with a “SUPER ID10T”?? �
48歲的Gita Gopinath女士是普林斯頓大學的經濟學博士，是哈佛大學國際研究和經濟學的John Zwaanstra教授。不管怎樣，哈佛大學會不會和“超級白痴”聯絡在一起?
Krishan Kumar Totlani
While 90% of Countries are facing the slowdown but will someone explain, Why our Stock markets are achieving all time highs & Indians spend 19K Crore which is over 2.5 Billion USD in 6 days at Amazon and Flipkart?
90%的國家都面臨經濟放緩的形勢，為什麼我們的股票市場創下了歷史新高，印度人6天內在亞馬遜和Flipkart花了1900億盧比，也就是超過25億美元?
Sagacious JoKeR
Krishan Kumar Totlani: “90% of countries are facing the slowdown”. Okay, but their leaders didn't say the equivalent of “Modi hai toh mumkin hai” (With Modi in place, everything is possible).
托特拉尼:“90%的國家面臨經濟放緩。”好吧，但是他們的領導人沒有說類似“莫迪萬歲”的話(莫迪上臺後，一切皆有可能)。
Indian Citizen
2.5 billion USD in 6 days by Amazon and Flipkart is a guestimate. If the economy is booming, how come people are being laid off??
6天內在亞馬遜和Flipkart花費的25億美元只是猜測。如果經濟蓬勃發展，為什麼會有人失業呢?