3月2日，中國工程院院士鍾南山在由愛丁堡大學主辦的國際疫情防控專家研討會上表示，隨著新冠疫苗的研發和陸續上市，至少需要2至3年的時間才能實現世界範圍內的群體免疫。
會上，鍾南山院士與美國著名傳染病學專家福奇博士進行了線上對話，共同探討全球抗疫合作等話題。
鍾南山強調，只有讓全球大多數人口接種疫苗，才能實現全球群體免疫。同時他認為，不能用一些不科學、不人道的“自然免疫”手段達到群體免疫效果。
It will take at least two to three years before the world can achieve herd immunity against COVID-19 through mass vaccination, leading Chinese respiratory disease expert Zhong Nanshan said Tuesday.
He made the remarks during a rare online exchange with top U.S. infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci hosted by the University of Edinburgh.
Zhong, a key expert behind China's quick and successful containment of the epidemic, stressed that herd immunity worldwide can only be achieved when the majority of the global population gets vaccinated against the virus.
He warned against "natural immunity," which means letting 60 to 70 percent of people get infected with the virus without any intervention. It's unrealistic, less scientific and inhumane, as 2 to 3 percent of those infected globally (14 to 21 million people) would die, he said.
全球合作至關重要
中美兩位專家一致認為，資訊共享和全球合作對抗擊新冠疫情至關重要。
鍾南山希望各國能夠保持團結精神，加強合作與協作，共同努力，儘可能多地為人民接種疫苗，想終止這個疫情，就需要由每個國家的決策層基於科學、基於證據去進行恰當的決策，大家都盡最大的努力，所以需要全球的團結。福奇也完全同意這一願景。
福奇樂觀地認為，之前全球合作已有成功範例，比如麻疹和脊髓灰質炎，無論是大範圍還是小範圍，都有很多例子。“所以具體到新冠防治，我覺得沒什麼理由不產生成功的例子。”
At the hour-long event, the two experts shared their views of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and explored how to change and reshape public health systems to transform outcomes.
Both of them agreed that international cooperation is crucial to put an end to the global health crisis.
Zhong said that the coronavirus is the enemy of mankind. As long as it is still spreading in some countries, it has not ended for the whole world. He called for all countries to maintain the spirit of solidarity, enhance cooperation, and work together to vaccinate as many people as possible.
與鍾南山一樣，福奇也提倡在全球範圍內接種疫苗，因為新冠病毒可能在那些疫苗接種率較低的國家擴散並可能發生變異，導致另一輪疫情的暴發。
福奇指出：“如果不開展跨國合作，病毒會在跨國傳播中快速變異，反過來衝擊已經成功防疫的國家。面對快速變異的病毒，沒有一個國家能獨善其身”。
Fauci pointed out another reason why global cooperation is so important is that the virus could mutate quickly in cross-border transmissions, which would in turn impact countries that have successfully controlled the pandemic.
Zhong agreed that new variants of the coronavirus pose big challenges to the prevention and control of the pandemic, and will greatly undermine the effectiveness of existing vaccines.
Therefore, global cooperation is needed to further relative studies and develop better vaccines that work against the variants, he said.
對未來的擔憂
兩位專家還分享了他們對未來全球公共衛生系統的擔憂。
鍾南山表示，他擔心在未來的健康問題上，政治因素可能仍然是決策的障礙。他呼籲所有國家的決策者在科學、證據和臨床試驗的基礎上採取果斷行動。
福奇擔心的則是，人類會忘記他們經歷過的可怕疫情，而不從中吸取教訓。
“很清楚的一點就是我們要保持這種團結合作的精神，用這種精神來推進全球衛生健康網路的工作，應該要讓每一個國家都參與到這個過程中，而且每一個國家都在這個過程中學習和吸取這些痛苦的經驗和教訓，十年之後、二十年之後，我們都不能忘記經驗教訓。”福奇說。
The two experts also shared their concerns about the future global public health systems.
Zhong said he feared political reasons might still be in the way of decision-making when it comes to health problems in the future. He called on policymakers in all countries to take decisive actions based on science, evidence and clinical trials.
What Fauci feared is that mankind would forget about the horrible experiences that they had gone through and not draw lessons from them.